Senator David Norris' address to Seanad Eireann (the Irish Senate)

In Sept. 2007, fourteen months before Ireland's bank bailout, I resigned from my position as the Risk Manager of UniCredit Bank Ireland. I did that in order not to incriminate myself. I have spent the last 4 years seeking justice. On Feb. 23rd., 2010, I was fortunate to have Senator David Norris raise the matter in Seanad Eireann (the Irish Senate), and request a response from the Minister of Finance, Mr. Brian Lenihan. Senator Norris concluded by stating that:
"...there is ministerial responsibility in this matter. This is a grossly serious matter which has been reported to the Financial Regulator. A man has lost his job as a result. He honourably resigned. The degree of breach was 40 times the accepted margin. This is a disaster. If we are not prepared to face the issue and investigate it when it has been laid before the House, there is absolutely no hope for the financial system or its reputation worldwide...How can the Financial Regulator investigate himself? He was in breach of his responsibility."
http://debates.oireachtas.ie/seanad/2010/02/23/00012.asp
In Nov. 2011, Emma Alberici, Europe correspondent for ABC TV, told my story as part of her documentary 'Going Rogue' which featured Nick Leeson and Sir John Vickers among other interviewees. It is ironic that at a time when the Irish tax-payer is bailing out un-secured bond holders, my story which occurred in Dublin, is deemed of interest to the Australian TV license payer. Please click on 'play video' on the following link:
http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2011/s3367080.htm
VRT, Belgian state-TV, aired this interview with me on March 6th., 2013. My Interview begins in minute 27:
Het verdriet van Europa: Zeepbellen blazen (The sadness of Europe: Bursting bubbles)
VRT, Belgian state-TV, released extra footage of my interview on March 8th., 2013. (in English):
Whistleblower.IRL@gmail.com

Thursday, 21 July 2011

'Lies and Truths on Greek Public Debt lead to the urgency of Audit' - Guest Post by Maria Lucia Fattorelli


Maria Lucia Fattorelli is Coordinator of Citizen Debt Audit-Brazil since 2001; Member of the Commission of Debt Audit of Ecuador (2007-2008) and Assessor of Brazilian Parliamentarian Investigation of Public Debt (2009-2010): CPI da Dívida da Câmara dos Deputados em Brasília. www.divida-auditoriacidada.org.br Citizen Debt Audit-Brazil is part of CADTM international network and Latindadd.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The pressure against Greece is getting stronger every week. Everybody talks a lot about the debt crisis; but it´s important to remark that before being a debt crisis it was a bank crisis. Since 2008, there was a big problem located in the largest banks sector, originating from issuing derivatives and other assets without any support – called toxic assets - putting some of the largest banks of the planet in risk of default. Under secret documentsi, atmosphere of fear and emergency summits, European Union took the countries to a series of “bank bail-out” operations. How European countries saved the banks? By issuing large amounts of sovereign bonds, transforming the bank crisis into a sovereign debt crisis.

The news in all kinds of media follows the “market feelings” and too much is published about the debt crisis, specially Greece´s, but almost nothing about its origin. It´s urgent to audit this public debt, in order to prove the origin of Greek public debt and uncover many lies which have been built against Greece´s situation, that are costing a very high price to its population.

The experience of debt audit in Ecuador showed that when a country owns a strong audit report with all the proofs of illegality and illegitimacy of the “Debt System”, the bond-holders accept any negotiation. When President Rafael Correa announced, on TV and radio, in October/2008, the main findings of the audit commission (CAIC), and suspended the coupon payment due in November/2008, the Ecuadorian bonds in secondary market went down to 30% of their nominal value. In 2009 the President made the sovereign proposal to pay 30% of the nominal value of the bonds - Global 2012 and 2030, that had interest rates of 12% and 10% at the time – putting an end to this debt. Almost 95% of the bond-holders presented their bonds and no legal action was initiated against Ecuador. This experience proved that a country can suspend payments and take sovereign acts anytime, and a safe result can be guaranteed by a deep audit report properly documented.

One of the most cruel lies that has been published is that the only way out for Greece´s debt crisis is submitting to impositions of IMF and EU, making new expensive debt to pay previous debt and privatize all national wealth, including the historical monuments! That´s not true. First, it is important for Greece and other European countries to look back to Latin American history, because what is happening in Europe now is very much like what happened here in the 80´s, with an aggravating circumstance: we were still under dictatorship and had no right to protest and absolutely no access to documents and information. Second, it is important to remember that if in theory nobody can obligate a country to make new loans to pay the previous debt, in reality, the creditors do pressure and coerce nations to get into the “Debt System”. That happens when the creditors organize themselves as a cartel composed by largest banks oligopoly, international financial authorities (IMF, EU, ECB), and other creditorsii. This situation can be considered illegal, for the evidence of the asymmetry between parts. Besides, the manipulation of the "country-risk" by the risk agencies - lowering the classification of the Greek debt exactly in refinancing days - is also a clear manipulation with the participation of the same banks oligopoly that contributed to push Greece into IMF and EU agreements. The illegality of the circumstances can nullify the debt operations.

The truth is that the “Debt-System” is a very profitable business and has many privileges. One of their main privileges is the possibility to negotiate the sovereign bond in any market, globally, and many times without the knowledge of the country. This has been a real large difficulty since the 70´s, when the international banks used to sell parts of the debt-contracts in secondary market. The important argument for us is that anytime a country can make a call of holders of its public debt. Even if the contract doesn´t have this prevision, this is always a sovereign act of a country that is called to pay for all disasters done in its name in secondary markets that includes tax heavens and all deregulated international finances. Another thing that can be done is a call for all stock markets to show up the operations with Greek sovereign bonds. They´ll probably argue that the bank secrecy impedes them to give the information, what can´t be accepted as public debt. In reality, the country must have the control of its own creditors, otherwise, to whom the interest will be paid?

Another very common comment in media is that some bond-holders have sold Greek bonds in the secondary market for a low price, like 60% of their value for example, and have already suffered the consequences – a “haircut”. Then, the new holders talk like they have helped Greece.

Is that comment true?

First of all, to evaluate how much someone lost or gained on a bond operation, we must know some information that a debt audit will answer:

  • How much the bond-holder paid when he bought these bonds in the first place? Most of the times, the market-price is different from the bond nominal-value. But always the interest rates are calculated over the nominal-value. Combining these two factors, when someone buys an amount of bonds for a price under its nominal-value, this bond-holder is surely making a lot of money. That is, the yield – the real income of the bond, calculated by dividing the interest coupon by the market-price – can be enormous. For example: If someone buys bonds for 60% of its value, instead of an interest rate of 7%, this person will have an income (yield) of 11,67%!

 
Bond-Nominal Value
Market Price
Interest-rate
Interest coupon
Yield
Example
1.000
60% = 600
7%
70
11,67%

In this case, the country registered a debt of 1.000, but in fact received less than 600, because of all costs involved on the emission of the bond. For this reason, it’s very important to investigate the real value the country received when the bonds were issued, in order to calculate the yield and reveal the true damage caused by the speculators, which also influence the continuous increases of the interest rates, submitting the nation under the market’s humor.

  • To give an idea of how a comment that is sold like true can be a big lie, let´s put it in numbers. We read that on April 14thiii the interest rate required by the “financial market” to buy Greek bonds was 18.3% per year! We don´t know the market-price that Greek bonds have been sold then – the audit would answer. If it was 100% of the nominal value, and the interest rates were 18.3% per year, the coupon the bond-holder will gain is €183 for each thousand! That can be considered an abuse against any Nation, and that´s why an audit is so urgent in Greece.
In case this holder had bought his bonds for 60% of its value, he is still making a lot of money, gaining with Greek bonds almost 100 times he would gain with US-Treasure bonds, for example.
If the bond was bought for 90% of its face-value, the yield goes up to 20.33%! In case of 80% of face-value, the yield goes up to 22,88%!

 
Bond-Nominal Value
Market Price
Interest-rate
Interest coupon
Yield
April,14,2011
1.000
100%
18,3%
183
18,3%
April,14,2011
1.000
90%
18,3%
183
20,33%
April,14,2011
1.000
80%
18,3%
183
22,88%

This simple example shows that it´s not true that the new bond-holders who bought the bonds with a “haircut” would have “helped Greece” and have the “right” to force the country to implement policies to guarantee their payments, selling out and privatizing the national wealth, or shifting bond-loans to burdensome mortgaged debts. They are already taking extreme advantage.

Looking at the examples above, we can figure out that when a bond-holder sells its bonds with the so called “haircut”, the one who buys these bonds makes a lot of money. As the market-price goes down, the higher goes the yield, which is a complete attraction for speculation. So, if someone “suffers” a haircut by selling bellow the nominal-value, the one who is buying will have an extra-gain over the enlarged yield of the bonds. Considering the two parts of this operation in secondary market can easily do their attached business, these actions can be characterized as “market manipulation” and “abuse” against Greece. While Greek workers are desperate, losing their jobs and even their lives, many people are making a lot of money against Greece.

This situation leads to the urgency of an audit that should be integral, which means that the audit must take care not only of the numbers of each bond issue, the accountability, but also look at all aspects and circumstances that took Greece to this point, like:
  1. How much sovereign Greek debt was issued to bail-out failed banks?
  2. What is the responsibility of European Central Bank and European Commission on Greece indebtedness process evolution?
  3. What is the responsibility of the rating agencies for downgrading the Greek bonds, causing the elevation of interest rates?
  4. What is the responsibility of IMF and EU on their impositions to Greek government to implement reforms against the people, benefiting the Banks?
  5. What is the responsibility of the Banks for:
    1. not telling the truth about the amount of Greek Debt in order to impulse more and more new loans, turning it exaggerated?
    2. speculating with Greek bonds, in order to make the interest rates go up continuously to force an intervention from IMF?
    3. playing with derivatives, “Credit Default Swaps” and other “toxic” papers?
  6. What is the origin of Greek Debt? Did Greece receive this amount of money? Where did it go? Who got the benefit of these loans? For which purpose?
  7. Which private debts were transformed into public debts? What is the impact of these private debts to the budget?


When we have this information all clear, we can tell what part of Greece´s debt is illegal, supported in many legal aspects, like:

    • Co-responsibility of creditors and international financial institutions
    • Asymmetry between parts
    • Violation of general principles: Reasonability, Rebus sic Stantibus
    • Right to Development
    • Right of Sovereignty
    • Violation to Human Rights

Other legal studies are necessary to match, in the country’s legal structure, the prohibition for procedures like “market manipulation” and “abuse”, because it´s evident that Greece is assuming abusive interest rates, as shown with the above examples.

Every legal system includes the notion of the Abuse of Rights. In general, the main characteristics that define an abusive act are connected to the case when the act produces damage, harm or injury; when there´s excessive prejudice to a part; when there´s evidence of the intention to produce prejudice or to obtain excessive benefits; when the act is against the social and economic rights; when the act doesn´t obey the reasonability cast in terms of social interests, among others.

During the Ecuadorian Debt Audit, besides applying the country legislation, the audit commission – CAIC - also searched for principles of International Public Right, International Pacts, like the International Pact of Civil and Political Rights and the International Pact of Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. We found out that most of the negotiations of Ecuadorian external debt had violated those treats.

The CAIC also utilized some General Principles of Law that can also be useful for Greece, like:
  • Enrichment without cause
  • Principle “contractus qui habent tractum successivium et dependientium de futuro rebus sic stantibus”, which determines that an obligation can be revised and become not eligible if the circumstances have substantially changed (interest rates, for example);
  • Usury, known as the illegal practice of charging excessive, unreasonably high, and often illegal interest rates on loans.
  • Anatocism
  • Vicious in origin
  • Good Faith (like in the United nations Convention)
  • Equity (The laws do not deal with other forms of abuse such as financial abuse)
  • Solidarity and Cooperation (also part of UN Convention)
  • Public Policy


Besides that, the CAIC deepened the studies about the doctrines of Odious Debt and Illegitimate Debt that can also be applied to Greece, because there are many subjects to be investigated, as Eric Toussaintiv resumed:
The Greek public debt made the headlines when the country’s leaders accepted the austerity measures demanded by the IMF and the European Union, sparking very significant social struggles throughout 2010. But where does this Greek debt come from? As regards the debt incurred by the private sector, the increase has been recent:  the first surge came about with the integration of Greece into the eurozone in 2001. A second debt explosion was triggered in 2007 when financial aid granted to banks by the US Federal Reserve, European governments and the European Central Bank was recycled by bankers towards Greece and other countries like Spain and Portugal. As regards public debt, the increase stretches over a longer period. In addition to the debt inherited from the dictatorship of the colonels, borrowing since the 1990s has served to fill the void created in public finances by lower taxation on companies and high incomes. Furthermore, for decades, many loans have financed the purchasing of military equipment, mainly from France, Germany and the United States. And one must not forget the colossal debt incurred by the public authorities for the organization of the Olympic Games in 2004. The spiraling of public debt was further fueled by bribes from major transnationals to obtain contracts, Siemens being an emblematic example.
This is why the legitimacy and legality of Greece’s debts should be the subject of rigorous scrutiny, following the example of Ecuador’s comprehensive audit commission of public debts in 2007-2008. Debts defined as illegitimate, odious or illegal would be declared null and void and Greece could refuse to repay, while demanding that those who contracted these debts be brought to justice. Some encouraging signs from Greece indicate that the re-challenging of debt has become a central issue and the demand for an audit commission is gaining ground.

When we start to investigate the public debt of any country, the first step to take is to know the origin of this debt. In Ecuadorian debt audit (CAIC) and also during the parliamentarian investigations in Brazil (CPI), only when we went deep on documents and data we could prove, for example the explicit practice of anatocism, for its evidence on the transformation of interest into capital. That happened during the Brady Plan – the same plan was adopted for many countries in Latin America. This plan transformed the previous debt in new sovereign bonds. The previous debt had a part of capital and a large part of interests that had been accumulated because they got just so high that our countries couldn´t pay them. Some of the new bonds issued under the Brady plan were the unequivocal transformation of the accumulated interests into capital and were called Interest-bond!

The Brady plan took place in the early 90´s and all kinds of media and even some people from academia believed that the Brady plan was a good step, because it was widely presented as a plan that would bring our countries back from insolvency to the market operations. Besides that, it was said that the transformation was “giving” our countries a discount. In fact, one of the new bonds issued under the Brady plan was called “Discount Bond”. Only when we did the audit in Ecuador and the investigations in Brazilian parliament and had access to the contracts we could see the reality was totally different from the propaganda.

The documents proved that there was a “Debt System” under a continuous refinancing of previous debt; a mechanism of creating new debt to pay previous debt in a way that the new debt was always much bigger than the previous one, besides the huge payments of capital, interests, commissions, fees, taxes, costs, and all kind of extra bills. The audit also proved that the negotiations were made abroad and in many occasions – like in the Brady plan - the money registered as debt on the contracts and bond issues never arrived into our countries, because the exchange of the previous debt into the new bonds was made by the creditors themselves, in the Luxemburg stock market, with no registration in the SEC - Securities and Exchange Commission in United States of America – besides the law and jurisdiction were the North American ones. The interest rates, costs and clauses of the contracts were completely illegal and abusive. Resuming, the audit uncovered the complete misinformation about the real meaning of the Brady plan for our countries. And this was possible by reaching the documents of the negotiations: contracts, records of meetings, writings, proceedings and all registers of each operation, besides the statistics and data available.

This is only one of the examples of how we proved the anatocism and the illegality of the process. The main conclusion of the 30 years audited in Ecuador and 39 years investigated in Brazil is that the “Debt System” benefited only the large international banks, and did not serve as a mechanism to finance our countries, as the economic theory defines public debt. The instrument of public debt has been usurped by the “market”. Our job is to reveal the truth, by reaching the documents and proofs that can unmask the many lies that have being told about our countries public debt. We can not keep paying illegal debt with our jobs and our lives. Feel encouraged to start Greece´s debt audit urgently, and count on our help.

ii
In Ecuadorian Debt Audit we proved by documents (clauses in contracts, letters and telex) the coordination between all creditors – international private banks organized in Committee, IMF and Paris Club - in 1982/1983, forcing the country to get into a new deal that transferred private and public debts into the responsibility of Central Bank of Ecuador.

iv www.cadtm.org - Greece: the very symbol of illegitimate debt, by Eric Toussaint



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Another interesting article by M.L. Fattorelli is 'Why A Debt Audit in Greece'. The beginning of the article reads:

After 6 days in Greece, all I could hear from many Greek people is: “we don’t know what is our public debt; we can’t understand how come it became so immense, because we don’t see it’s correspondence in investments, benefits, or anything to the country; workers only know we are paying too much taxes and having our rights being cut down every day with closing of schools, hospitals, kindergartens; employee going high and we’re are hit every day with terrorist information about the future of our country’s economy and even risk for our historical monuments”.
The women are the main victims of these measures, because they are the first ones to be filled from their jobs, and the last ones in line for new jobs. Also, when social services are cut down or eliminated, it’s expected that women will take care of services like health, education, assistance, children care, and many others, without any payment.

To read further, please go to:



Tuesday, 19 July 2011

My comment to Golem XIV's blog post - 'Final Destination Europe'



David Malone, in his Golem XIV blog, wrote the following today:

"Three years ago Europe's and America's banks were supposed to die in an horrific accident.  Their own rampaging greed and corruption had finally caught up with them. But somehow they cheated death. They did it by selling the lives of others; the tax payers in their own nations and those of nations, like Greece and Ireland, whose leaders had long since sold their own rotten and threadbare souls and were now keen to sell the souls of others.


But Death doesn't like to be cheated.

And so here we are with Death picking them off one by one: Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain. Who's next? Italy?

Who would have seen Strauss-Kahn arrested on suspicion of Rape? One moment in the lap of luxury the next in Rikers Island trying not to end up in anyone else's lap.  Fate? I think so.

The Irish Celtic Tiger was the first to go. The whore master of Europe's best little banker's brothel, the IFSC (International Financial Services Centre) . Come to Dublin and do whatever you want. What could go wrong? Answer - almost everything. Anglo Irish began to puke up everything it had ever swallowed. Depfa and Hypo Real Estate broke out in pustules and blamed each other. While all over Ireland property and land developers began to choke and suffocate in a cloud of their own lies and unpaid bills.

The Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and his finance minister Brian Cowen saw Death coming for them. And tried to buy him off by selling the soul of Ireland's future.  €70 billion and counting which is what has been crammed into 'saving the banks' but which is more accurately described as saving their bond holding creditors and the foreign banks who lent to them. Ireland is being tortured to death. Water boarded with debt.

Then came Greece. €340 billion in national debt. €100 billion in 'emergency loans' from the EU and IMF. Strapped to a table with tubes pumping blood into a bulging and livid vein. Being told it will help but not realizing that the blood coming in is being sucked straight back out from the other arm making its devious way to the intended recipient - the bloated, syphilitic, sick men of European banking.  Greece is just there to wash the blood through. A "pass through" to protect the identity of the real recipients. Papandreous will enforce austerity and watch Greece wither.

Watching the grisly spectacle has been Jose Luis Zapatero. Who's one contribution so far has been to blubber "Not me. I'm not like them. Spain isn't Greece."  While doing as little as possible to recognize the undeclared debts being hidden away in the regions, municipalities and their pet Caja's.  No Spain isn't Greece. It's bigger. Will Spain be next, crushed under falling masonry in some obscure town?

Or will Italy go first? Giulio Tremonti, Italy's Greenspan, suddenly finds that the 'friend' in whose apartment he has been living, is required to help the police with their enquiries. Will Tremonti go? Will Berlusconi fall from power before him? If either does will UniCredit suddenly find it has bad loans surfacing like the dead from unmarked graves all over Italy?  Word has it that their American operation, Pioneer, which they tried to sell then suddenly decided not to, is floating like the Marie Celeste. Silent, ragged, becalmed. Not a soul on board.

There was a time when the strong thought they might survive by feeding Death with the weak. Give him Greece and maybe he'll go away. But Death is as patient as he is voracious.

Now panic is not far beneath the surface of calm. Bloomberg today quotes Suki Mann, senior credit strategist at Societe Generale as saying,
“Greece appears beyond repair, Italy is on the brink and the chances are that the euro might be no more very soon.”
Herman von Rompoy and his boys and girls at the ECB and beginning to wonder if they have put themselves on Death's list.  If Greece defaults, will Portugal or Spain be pulled over after them? And if so will the ECB be inexorably after them? The ECB is stuffed with bad paper from all the debtor nations. If they go what will happen? Wil the ECB be downgraded? The ECB doesn't want to find out. It wants Germany and France to pay for their own European experiment in bank blackmail.

But in Berlin Angela Merkel of Germany is closing the doors and windows. No one is to be allowed in or even near.  She has seen how the film ends and doesn't want to star in the final reel. Let America and the Fed default. Bernanke is there printing and praying. Let him die. Let China crash land, let the ECB bleed, but Germany will not go down.

Let Greece default. Today the ECB seems to have bent to Germany's will and is saying it will consider a 'temporary Greek default'. The yield on Greek two years bonds just went into orbit.

Perhaps even France will struggle as she drowns in the defaulted sovereign and corporate debts that BNP Paribas', Credit Agricole and Societe General are nurturing like a cancer within them.  But when Death calls no one wants to be next. One more breath, just one more. Take my friend. Just not me. Not yet.

One more European summit in which the defenceless will be sacrificed to protect the wealthy.
http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2011/07/final-destination-europe.html

My comment:
Dear Golem,

Grudgingly, I would have to agree with your comments regarding what was allegedly the Celtic Tiger. However, I whole heartedly agree with your observation about the current state of affairs in Ireland as that in which "Ireland is being tortured to death. Water boarded with debt."

Our elected government and our Prime Minster especially, began with a show of strength in front of Angela Merkel, intended to impress us, gullible Irish folk. This soon turned into Fianna Fáil mark II, where Dublin takes its orders from Berlin. Anything else might result in Pandora's box being opened - an extremely embarrassing prospect to the authoties, banks and elected politicians both in Germany and its newly acquired vassal state of Ireland (Land Irland).

Call it Pandora's Box, or Death knocking at the door, it would seem that we are about to witness a crack, a knock, or a bang of colossal magnitude.

Regards,
WhistleblowerIRL
UniCredit Ireland's EX Risk-Manager


PS

For readers who might not be familiar with the source of the reference that Golem made above to the IFSC in Dublin:
David McWilliams, an Irish economist & journalist who began his career at the Central Bnak of Ireland, and then went on to work for UBS and BNP, was interviewed by ZDF, the German TV channel about the collapse of Hypo Real Estate. In that interview, McWilliams uses the metaphor of German bankers behaving in Dublin like 'Men in a brothel' with the blessing of the Irish Financial Regulator. This observation makes it a bit harder to lay the blame fairly and squarely at the door of a particular nation, but reminds us that we are all paying for the greed of bankers and the criminal stupidity of the authorities.

Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Tuesday afternoon update from Italy

Bloomberg reports this afternoon that:



UniCredit Shares Halted in Milan as Italian Banks Extend Losses

July 12, 2011, 3:56 AM EDT
By Dan Liefgreen

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- UniCredit SpA was temporarily halted after falling as much as 7 percent in Milan as Italian banks extended losses. The Italian Exchange generally halts trading of a stock when fluctuations exceed 5 percent from the opening price. Milan-based UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank, is trading at its lowest level since March 9, 2009. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, the country’s No. 2 lender, declined as much as 7.3 percent and was trading at 1.44 euros, down 5.6 percent, as of 9:27 a.m.



Italy Plunge Brings Debt Crisis to EU’s Biggest Borrower

July 12, 2011, 7:09 AM EDT
By Andrew Davis

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- The plunge in Italian markets overshadowed policy makers’ efforts to fix Greek finances as the euro-region’s debt crisis infected Europe’s largest borrower.
Italian bonds fell for a seventh day and the nation’s borrowing costs jumped by more than half at an auction of 6.75 billion euros ($9.4 billion) of bills today. Stocks pared declines after falling to a two-year low. Warnings by Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s over Italy’s ability to trim debt, coupled with infighting in Silvio Berlusconi’s government over a budget-cutting plan, fueled the sell-off.
“Italy coming under severe market pressure, being the third-largest economy and a founding member of the EU, signals that the sovereign and banking crisis has reached a deeply systemic phase,” Vladimir Pillonca, an economist at Societe Generale SA in London, wrote in a note to investors today.
The rout in Italy underscored Europe’s inability to contain the crisis that began in Greece in October 2009 and led to bailouts in Ireland and Portugal. Finance ministers last night failed to agree on how to share with creditors the cost of a second bailout for Greece to be financed primarily by its European Union allies, including Italy.
...The yield on 10-year Italian bonds rose 7 basis points to 5.76 percent, after reaching 5.96 percent earlier, the highest since 1997. The yield premium investors demand to hold the debt over German bunds to a euro-era reached a euro-era record 348 basis points, before narrowing to 311.

...Trading in shares of UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank, had to be suspended limit down after the stock plunged more than 7 percent, pushing the benchmark FTSE MIB index down as much as 4.8 percent. UniCredit, one of the biggest holders of Italian bonds, pared losses and advanced 4.5 percent to 1.206 euros as of 11:40 a.m. in Milan. Even with the rebound, UniCredit has fallen by 22 percent this month, shedding about 9 billion euros in market value.

...Italian bond yields are nearing “disaster,” according to Gary Jenkins, head of fixed-income at Evolution Securities Ltd. Greece, Ireland and Portugal all sought international assistance after their 10-year yields rose past 7 percent.
Italy has more than 500 billion euros of bonds maturing in the next three years. That’s about twice as much as the 256 billion euros extended to Greece, Ireland and Portugal in their three-year aid programs.
At almost 120 percent of gross domestic product, Italy’s debt is the EU’s second largest by that measure after Greece. Its 1.8 trillion euros of borrowing in nominal terms is more than the combined debt of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.




Per l'attenzione degli studenti presso le università italiane:

Un numero crescente di voi hanno visitato il mio blognelle ultime 48 ore. Se qualcuno di voi vuole offrire un aiuto con traduzione di italiani, questo sarebbe molto apprezzato.

Si prega di contattarmi al seguente indirizzo:

whistleblower.irl@gmail.com


Grazie

Monday, 11 July 2011

Axis of Disaster - Monday afternon update by Golem XIV

"Well Italy is certainly doing the business for Europe and the Euro today as I suspected it might.

Italy's other huge bank Intesa Sanpaolo just dropped 6% of it share price before trading in its shares was halted. All the European bourses are way, way down.  French and German exchanges are down 2%+ while Spain and Italy are down 3% and 3.24 % respectively as of 14.16 GMT.

And the Euro is plunging against the Swiss franc again.  UniCredit's East European business is hurting now.  I wonder how much is pure CDS speculation and shorting and how much is capital  flight. It's bound to be both but I wonder which is leading which?

One thing's for sure Greece and Italy are going to make a lovely pair.

Remember the other nation (other than Italy) whose banks have exposure to banking in Hungary and the region is...yep you guessed it, Greece. So as those currencies in Hungary Romania and Bulgaria fall against the rampant Swiss Euro, the Italian and Greek banks will feel the defaults. Two thirds of the outstanding debt in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria is in Swiss Francs."

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2011/07/axis-of-disaster-monday-update.html

Golem XIV's blog post 'Italy and Greece an axis of disaster' and my comments to it


This is Golem XIV's most recent posting:

"I think there is something big, possibly very big, about to surface in the Sovereign debt bond markets.

What follows is pure speculation. so please take it as no more than that. But the signs seem ominous to me.

First the facts.

On Friday Italian government bonds got a kicking. The demand for Italy's standard 10 year bonds dropped, and the cost of insuring them against default (CDS cost) jumped. The reason reported was renewed fears that Italy's finance minister Mr Tremonti would leave his post after he was linked to a corruption investigation on top of the ongoing rift with Berlusconi.

Then, also Friday, UniCredit, Italy's Trillion Euro bank had trading in its shares suspended after they dropped 6%. That is a big drop.  The reason reported for that was fears that some Italian Banks might fail the latest European Bank Stress Tests whose results are due on the 15th of July. And that UniCredit, which has constantly denied it has any problems whatsoever, might nevertheless have to raise new capital.  UniCredit is the only one of the global European Banks not to have raised more capital so far in this crisis.

Then it was reported today (Sunday 10th July) that European finance ministers are to hold an emergency meeting on Monday, "to discuss the possibility that the debt crisis could spread to Italy from Greece...." Suddenly we there is some tlink from Greece to Italy and we skip Spain and Portugal.

This looks to me like something unravelling.

First let's remember that Mr Tremonti is Italy's answer to America's Greenspan. He has governed Italy with Berlusconi for 15 of the last 17 years and spent many of them as finance minister. During that time Italy's debt has climbed to about 120% of GDP and over 2 trillion euros.  Right or wrong people see Tremonti as the man who has protected Italy and her banks. They fear that without him something bad will happen. I think they're right. Without him some bad things will surface.

Turning to UniCredit, it is always noted that somehow, despite Italy's vast debt, both Italy's banks and Italy herself have avoided the worst of the financial crisis. That Italy's banks have not suffered downgrades and insolvency has always surprised me.  And apparently it surprises the markets as well who have been jittery about UniCredit  all through the crisis.

Friday's plunge in UniCredit's share price and the suspension of trading is not the first time. From the beginning of the banking crisis UniCredit has seen its share price plunge and had to suspend trading in them, over and over again. Just a quick look back reveals trading in UniCredit shares being suspended in June '08, several times on July 10th '08, again on 30th Sept '08 and Oct 6th and again in January of '09. There may be others I didn't spot.

The key to this is what the ratings agencies said when they were questioned about why they gave Northern Rock a good rating only days before it collapsed. They said at the time that part of their evaluation of the 'health' of the bank was how likely they thought it was that it would be bailed out by the government in event of a crisis. Thus they were not evaluating the bank, purely financially - as we might once have assumed - central to their  evaluation of the bank's 'health' was how likely it was to have the guarantee of a government bail out. Being likely to be bailed out equaled, in their eyes, a 'healthy' bank.

This is the logic that I think explains why the market sells UniCredit like it has the plague at the slightest hint of trouble.  I think the market knows or at least suspects that UniCredit is a very bad shape and will only survive for as long as it's friends have total control over Italian regional and National politics. Should Tremonti, in particular, lose his grip, then UniCredit's viability suddenly looks very fragile indeed.

And if UniCredit looks fragile then so does Italy as a whole. UniCredit's fall would bring Italy down, gold reserves or no gold reserves.

In my opinion Italy as well as UniCredit is in far, far worse shape than has so far been admitted. Italy has, I think, hidden debts in its Cities and regions, particularly those of the North.  I think we will see 'new' debts surfacing, particularly if Berlusconi and or Tremonti goes.

But why should you accept my feeling that UniCredit is in trouble? I have written about UniCredit's debt problems before in Dominoes Falling from the East.  In that article I detailed how exposed UniCredit is to East European debt. WIthout going in to details, UniCredit owns Austria's largest bank, Bank Austria, which is one of the largest players in Eastern European lending in countires such as Hungary, Poland and Romania. These and other countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkans have a common problem.

One of the things I have been watching is the remorseless strengthening of the Swiss Frank against the Euro and all other currencies.  A huge amount of the loans  in countries like Hungary were taken out in Swiss Francs. At the time it made sense to borrowers because the rate was far lower than for loans in local currencies or Euros.  Now however, as the Swiss franc crushes all the other currencies, people are finding the money they earn, is worth less and less relative to the Swiss franc denominated loan they have to pay.  As the Swiss franc gains, more and more loans in Eastern Europe and the Balkans are going under.  UniCredit is the final resting place for those losses.

Now I could be seeing dark clouds where there are none. But two sudden developments make me think I am not imagining them.

First, according to an Italian article reported tonight (Sunday) in ZeroHedge, the Italian regulator is so concerned that there could be a blood bath in Italian Bank shares in this week, that it may enforce a ban on naked shorting. Now whether you like or detest naked shorting, this clearly says the rumour is out that UniCredit, among others, is exposed: Hidden debts and a sugar daddy who might be about to fall himself equals dad, bad ju-ju.

Second, the FT's headline on Monday morning (online version at least) is "EU shifts stance on Greece default".  The news is that all of a sudden European leaders ( read - the banks who advise them) are willing to countenance Greece defaulting on some of its debt.  The article reports how the French plan which was seen as the answer only a few days ago, has suddenly been abandoned for a version of the German plan which had been considered unworkable.

I think this U-Turn is very significant.

The French plan was complex - I did my best to read the French text - and as far as I could see it would have benefited the big banks much more than Greece. The key to the French plan was time. It extended the time Greece had to pay its debts. but in the end Greece would have paid the banks far more. It was a rotten plan for Greece and pretty good plan for the banks.  So why abandon the chance to fleece Greece even more?

The only reason I can see is if suddenly time no longer looked as if it was on the bank's side. As long as the banks felt the situation was going to remain stable for a while, then it made sense to extend the repayments but on harsher terms and get more in the longer run. But if suddenly there was reason to think that the situation might deteriorate then that plan would be disaster for the banks. In the face of an approaching disaster the banks would rather get what they could now, and get out.

And then we read about the new plan in which the banks are suddenly in favour of having Greece repurchase its bonds (its debt) from the banks who currently hold the bonds (the debt) even at a loss.  Greece would use EU money to do this, lent to it by teh EU. This would be a technical default and a loss for the banks. But suddenly this seems OK to the banks. They are, it seems in a hurry to get what they can now, even if they do make a loss.

Now I don't believe the banks ever do anything out of a sense of civic duty. They do only what benefits them. The only reason I can see for teh banks do be in a hurry to get paid soon even it it means taking a loss, is if the banks  feel there is a larger loss coming.  What would trigger a fear of a larger loss and make the banks, who only recently refused out right to ever consider taking a loss on their bonds, consider such a thing?

Italy. If Italy looks like it might be unravelling - the bond markets would start to dump its sovereign and its banks's debts and that would definfitely make it worth getting paid out from Greece now.

Like I said, this is speculation. But something is definitely up."
http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2011/07/italy-and-greece-axis-of-disaster.html



These were my comments:

"Good morning Golem,

Thank you once again for a fascinating read. Speculation or not, there are enough facts in it to make anyone seriously concerned. The increased traffic on my blog over the last few days is another indication that UniCredit is a source of concern not only on our side of the Atlantic, but also in the US, courtesy of Pioneer. It is remarkable how UniCredit did a complete U-turn on its decision to sell Pioneer. First, it was up for sale it is was deemed irrelevant to UniCredit's global business plan, then the markets were told that UniCredit has decided not to sell Pioneer because it was 'the best thing since sliced bread' - to use a common Irish expression. Could it be that no one wanted to buy Pioneer? Could it be a similar story to our very own AIB (Allied Irish Banks) which no one in the market has wanted to touch with a barge-pole?

A tragically comic aspect which I hasten to add to your article above is the following: the regulator presiding over the chaos that is Italian banking is Governor Mario Draghi. He has done such a good job at it, that he has been appointed for the top financial job in Europe - he is to be the next governor of the ECB. Hilarious if it were not true. Hence his efforts last Friday to refute speculation such as yours:


Draghi defends Italy budget and banks, markets fret


"ROME/AIX-EN-PROVENCE, France, July 8 (Reuters) - Bank of Italy chief Mario Draghi delivered a robust defence of Italy's banking sector and public finances in the face of intense financial market pressure on Friday.

Draghi, who will succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as European Central Bank president in November, also saw an "undisputed" need for advanced countries to end the support provided by their fiscal and monetary policies in the last three years..."



Needless to say, I have a very personal interest in all matters UniCredit. Hence, I hope you will not mind the fact that I am enclosing a comment I posted on your blog last January.



Regards,
WhistleblowerIRL, UniCredit Ireland's EX Risk-Manager

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: whistleblower IRL
Date: 14 January 2011
Subject: Comment on Golem's blog

In addition to Golem's point about UniCredit being hit with a train load of debt from east, there is more trouble brewing in the west. Kathleen Barrington reported in Ireland's Business Post last Sunday that "The Central Bank of Ireland has initiated another review following further media reports of alleged liquidity breaches at the Irish subsidiary of a leading international bank in 2007." http://www.thepost.ie/themarket/new-probe-into-liquidity-breaches-53862.html

Kathleen Barrington refers to the question raised by Dr. Graf in the Austrian parliament on 23 Dec. 2010, the link to the question is:

A previous article by Kathleen Barrington relates to the curious way in which "UniCredit Bank Ireland reclassified €3bn of assets":

For further reading about UniCredit Ireland and the Irish Regulator's handling of its business conduct, please see the cover story in the recent edition of Village magazine:

For further information about UniCredit Ireland, please visit my blog at:


Regards,
WhistleblowerIRL, UniCredit Ireland's EX Risk-Manager.